Xi Jinping has fortunately not, however, followed Sun Tzu’s advice to keep plans secret until he is ready to act upon them. “Xi has ordered his military to be ready to take Taiwan by 2027, U.S. officials say. But many analysts see that as an attempt to galvanize his military rather than a timeline for invasion.”12
We have the perception, a holdover from 1945, that the United States can manufacture limitless quantities of equipment and supplies. This is exactly how we won World War II. While human lives are irreplaceable, inanimate objects are expendable, and we produced them more rapidly than the Axis could destroy them. Germany, in particular, had wunderwaffen (wonder weapons) such as jet fighters, Tiger II tanks, and V-2 ballistic missiles. The latter could not, unlike bombers and V-1 cruise missiles, be intercepted or shot down. The Sherman tank was no match for the Tiger in a face-to-face fight—but more than 50,000 Shermans were produced, compared to about 1,800 Tiger tanks.
The IndustryWeek article cites a similar shortage, not of caulkers and carpenters but skilled industrial workers as well as the closure of small manufacturing shops. During WWI, the U.K. and its rivals were woefully unprepared to fight a war that none of them probably wanted, which led to the Shell Crisis of 1915. All the armies had artillery, but not enough shells to meet sustained intensive combat on the Western Front.5 “Field Marshal Sir John French (commanding the (British Expeditionary Force)) claimed that the rate at which shells were arriving in late September 1914 allowed seven rounds per gun per day, while during the previous fortnight their average expenditure had been twice that.”
In the documentary How Germany Lost the WWI Arms Race, presenter David Saul6 adds that, “By May 1915, so serious was the ‘shell crisis’ that most British guns had been reduced to firing just four shells a day, and it seemed as if the war was going to be lost not in the trenches of Flanders but the factories of Britain.” The British chemist Chaim Weizmann is known mostly as the first president of Israel, but his implementation of a way to convert grain into acetone to make cordite saved the U.K. from running out of ammunition. His counterpart, Fritz Haber, who developed nitrogen fixation (nitrates are required for explosives), kept Germany supplied as well.7
The outbreaks of WWI and WWII had definite dates and times; Dec. 7, 1941, for the United States in the latter. World War III may, however, have already started in the Far East and we don’t even know it. Sun Tzu’s Art of War has been China’s military playbook for about 2,500 years. It was the foundation of Mao Tse-tung’s Little Red Book, and it explains how North Vietnam’s inferior military forces compelled the United States to give up in 1975. “Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.”11
Although the United States seems to be in better condition than its NATO allies, we’re already experiencing our own shell crisis. CNN reports8 that “Concern is growing within the Pentagon over the potential need to stretch its increasingly scarce ammunition stockpiles to support Ukraine and Israel in two separate wars, according to multiple U.S. defense officials.” That is, we don’t even have enough ammunition to supply our own armed forces despite the fact that we spend more on defense than the next 10 countries combined.9 Compare the situation to that in World War II, when Ford’s Willow Run bomber plant could produce a B-24 Liberator bomber every hour, and 18 per day. (The plant had two 9-hour shifts.)
Quality and efficiency principles began to convey decisive advantages to American manufacturers roughly 120 years ago, during the era of Henry Ford, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Harrington Emerson, and Frank Gilbreth. We must use these principles as widely as possible to rebuild the manufacturing base we would need to win a major conflict.
Our ships in every harbour
Be neither whole nor sound,
And, when we seek to mend a leak,
No oakum can be found;
Or, if it is, the caulker,
And carpenters also,
For lack of pay have gone away,
And this the Dutchmen know!
1. Wuest, Thorsten, and Morford, Michael. “It’s Time to Revisit the ‘Arsenal of Democracy.’ Including Smaller Manufacturers Is Key.” Industry Week, Feb. 21, 2024.
2. Fabino, Alexander. “Russia Dramatically Increased Weapons Production in 2023 Despite Sanctions.” Newsweek, Jan. 1, 2024.
3. Parker, George, and Rathbone, John-Paul. “UK armed forces would last just ‘five days’ in a war, senior MP warns.” Financial Times, Feb. 10, 2023.
4. Murray, Jessica. “British army would exhaust capabilities after two months of war, MPs told.” The Guardian, Feb. 4, 2024.
5. Hay, George. “The Tragedy of the Shells.” The National Archive, March 5, 2015.
6. David, Saul. “How Germany lost the WWI arms race.” BBC News, Feb. 16, 2012.
7. Science History Institute. “Fritz Haber.”
8. Liebermann, Oren, and Bertrand, Natasha. “U.S. eyes weapons stockpiles as concern grows about supporting both Ukraine and Israel’s wars.” CNN, Oct. 11, 2023.
9. Peter G. Peterson Foundation. “U.S. Defense Spending Compared to Other Countries.” April 24, 2023.
10. Andrews, Wyatt. “Some U.S. military parts imported from China.” CBS News, Jan. 9, 2013.
11. Sun Tzu, Lionel Giles translation. The Art of War. Project Gutenberg. 1910.
12. Stewart, Phil, and Ali, Idrees. “How the U.S. is preparing for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.” Reuters, Jan. 31, 2024.
One way to win before one fights is to gain control of enough of the other side’s vital supply chain and/or manufacturing capability to ensure that, once the war actually begins, the opponent is unable to build, repair, supply, or replenish its military establishment. This is exactly what China is doing at this moment, and it is a clear and present danger to the United States.
The solutions are simple
What do quality and productivity have to do with World War III, which we all hope will never happen? The answer is everything. A massive loss of American manufacturing capability between 1945 and 2024 has conceded enormous advantages to aggressor nations that might be inclined to break the peace.